On Monday, Nigeria's headline inflation slowed for the first time in 2025 since the Consumer
Price index (CPI) rebase. Inflation slowed to 23.18% in February, down from
24.48% in January, thanks to cheaper fuel and a stable naira, according to new
data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The key factors were diesel prices, which lowered by
33% to around ?1,000 ($0.65)per litre, while petrol prices stayed put over ?800
($0.52) per litre, thanks to increased supply from the Dangote Refinery. This
helped businesses and consumers breathe a little easier—at least for the
moment. Food inflation also dipped slightly to 23.51% from 24.08% in January.
But this cooldown may not last. Analysts warn that
inflation could pick up again by April, driven by broader economic pressures.
While the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rebase offers better measurement, the real
forces at play—global economic headwinds and structural inefficiencies—haven’t
gone anywhere.
“Expect worse monthly numbers deep into 2025,” warns
Basil Abia, co-founder of Veriv Africa, a Nigerian data research firm. He
predicts an average inflation rate of 31% for the year, saying global economic
pressures will be the main driver.
Meanwhile, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) held interest rates at 27.50% in February, citing
exchange rate stability, cooling in fuel prices, and the CPI rebase.
But with inflation likely to resume its climb, the
CBN’s target may already be out of reach.
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