Nigeria missing as AfDB projects strong growth for African countries

Nigeria is missing from the list of 11 African countries expected to experience strong growth in 2024.

According to the African Development Bank Group, in its latest Macroeconomic Performance and Outlook of the continent, Africa will account for 11 of the world’s 20 fastest-growing economies in 2024, but Nigeria is not expected to be one of them.

AfDB said the top 11 African countries projected to experience strong economic performance are Niger (11.2 per cent), Senegal (8.2 per cent), Libya (7.9 per cent), Rwanda (7.2 per cent), Cote d’Ivoire (6.8 per cent), Ethiopia (6.7 per cent), Benin (6.4 per cent), Djibouti (6.2 per cent), Tanzania (6.1 per cent), Togo (6 per cent), and Uganda (6 per cent).

The International Monetary Fund reduced its forecast for Nigeria and its economic growth to 3 per cent in 2024, down from a 3.1 per cent projected in October 2023. This is contained in the Washington-based institution’s World Economic Outlook update for January 2024.

Overall, the AfDB report said that the real gross domestic product growth for the continent is expected to average 3.8 per cent and 4.2 per cent in 2024 and 2025, respectively. This is higher than projected global averages of 2.9 per cent and 3.2 per cent, the report said.

The continent is expected to remain the second-fastest-growing region behind Asia.

The President of the AfDB, Akinwumi Adesina, spoke during the launch of the report on the sidelines of the 37th Ordinary Session of the Assembly of the African Union – Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Adesina said, “Today, as we gather here, like other regions of the world, Africa continues to face multiple crises, including rising cost of living, weakening economic growth, a tightening of global financial conditions, shortage of concessional resources, increasing effects of climate change, lingering impacts of health pandemics, conflict, and geopolitical tensions.

“The interaction of these global and regional crises with existing regional structural weaknesses threatens to halt Africa’s gradual economic recovery and is hindering socioeconomic developments.”

“Despite the challenging global and regional economic environment, 15 African countries have posted output expansions of more than 5 per cent,” he added.

Adesina further called for larger pools of financing and several policy interventions to boost Africa’s growth.

The latest report is calling for cautious optimism given the challenges posed by global and regional risks. These risks include rising geopolitical tensions, increased regional conflicts, and political instability—all of which could disrupt trade and investment flows, and perpetuate inflationary pressures.

Presenting the key findings of the report, the African Development Bank’s Chief Economist and Vice President, Prof. Kevin Urama, said, “Growth in Africa’s top-performing economies has benefited from a range of factors, including declining commodity dependence through economic diversification, increasing strategic investment in key growth sectors, and rising both public and private consumption, as well as positive developments in key export markets.

“Africa’s economic growth is projected to regain moderate strength as long as the global economy remains resilient, disinflation continues, investment in infrastructure projects remains buoyant, and progress is sustained on debt restructuring and fiscal consolidation.”

Highlighting the importance of collaboration, the Commissioner for Economic Development, Trade, Tourism, Industry and Minerals, African Union Commission, Ambassador Albert Muchanga, said, “The future of Africa rests on economic integration. Our small economies are not competitive in the global market. A healthy internal African trade market can ensure value-added and intra-African production of manufactured goods.”