After two years of dividend drought,
leading breweries, telecoms, and FMCG giants are signalling a return to
shareholder rewards.
After two bruising years marked by foreign exchange
volatility and surging finance costs, some of Nigeria’s most reliable dividend
payers may finally be ready to turn the taps back on. From breweries to
telecoms to consumer goods, a wave of earnings rebounds in 2025 is reviving
investor hopes for dividend cheques landing in accounts once again.
For income-focused investors, the stakes are high—not
just for the cash flow, but for the boost that regular payouts can give to
stock valuations. This year, a mix of FX stability, operational recovery, and
stronger balance sheets is creating fertile ground for a potential payout
revival.
Breweries: Back in the Game
Nigerian Breweries
last paid a dividend in 2022, capping a steady run between 2020 and 2022. That
streak ended in 2023, when severe FX losses and high finance costs dragged the
brewer into a ?142 billion loss, which deepened to ?183 billion in 2024,
pushing retained losses to ?169.78 billion.
The turnaround began in 2025. By mid-year, the company
had delivered ?88.42 billion in profit after tax—five times its 2022
profit—while retained losses almost halved to ?82.46 billion. Shareholders’
funds stood at ?549 billion, with over ?60 billion earned in Q2 alone. Analysts
project a full-year profit of ?170–?180 billion, potentially wiping out
retained losses in early 2026 and opening the door for a 2025 financial year
dividend.
The only caution flag: working capital pressures,
which trimmed operating cash flow from ?194 billion to ?45 billion in H1 2025.
Champion Breweries
has already broken a six-year dry spell, paying a dividend of six kobo per
share for 2024 from a profit of ?817 million. The momentum has continued in
2025, with ?2.2 billion in H1 profit already surpassing any full-year result
since 2017. Retained earnings now stand at ?5.6 billion, and analysts say
sustained or even higher payouts are plausible.
Telecoms: MTN’s Fast Track to Recovery
MTN Nigeria
enjoyed a steady dividend run after listing in 2019, but losses of ?178 billion
in 2023, deepening to ?550 billion in 2024, pushed equity deep into negative
territory. Retained losses ballooned to ?607.5 billion.
A sharp turnaround in late 2024 carried into 2025. By
mid-year, MTN posted ?415 billion profit after tax, slashing retained losses to
?193 billion and narrowing negative equity from ?458 billion to just ?42.5
billion. FX losses, once in the hundreds of billions, fell to just ?5 billion,
while tariff hikes and data revenue growth boosted operational efficiency,
lifting H1 EBITDA margin to 50.5% versus a 44.5% forecast.
If H2 matches H1, MTN could close 2025 with ?800–?850
billion profit, clearing retained losses and restoring positive equity—paving
the way for a dividend comeback. CardinalStone analysts, in an August 5 report,
described the outlook as “positive” and flagged a potential payout resumption.
FMCG: From Red Ink to Black
Nestlé Nigeria
held dividends steady for four years until 2022. But by 2023, FX and
interest-driven losses brought a ?79 billion loss after tax, swelling to ?165
billion in 2024. Equity sank to -?92.3 billion and retained losses hit ?243
billion.
The first half of 2025 has brought relief: retained
losses fell to ?193 billion, equity improved to -?42 billion, and FX losses
flipped from a ?262 billion deficit in 2024 to a ?3 billion gain. Continued
momentum could push Nestlé back into positive equity by year-end, potentially
re-opening the door to dividends for the first time in three years.
Cadbury Nigeria last
paid a ?0.40 dividend in 2022, before FX pressures and rising finance costs
drove losses in 2023 and 2024. Retained losses reached ?37 billion by end-2024.
But H1 2025 brought a ?10 billion profit, trimming retained losses to ?27
billion and boosting equity to ?14.6 billion.
While profitability is back, high inventory levels—?20
billion worth—are locking up cash and squeezing operating cash flow. If the
second half mirrors the first, Cadbury could end the year with ?20 billion
profit, leaving just ?7 billion in retained losses. Most analysts see a
cautious 2026 dividend more likely than an immediate payout.
A Broad Market Turning Point
Across sectors, FX stability, easing interest rates,
and a return to profitability are breathing life back into balance sheets. If
momentum holds, 2025 could mark the end of a long dividend drought for some of
Nigeria’s most recognisable listed companies.
Benjamin Asiotu, Chief Dealer at El-Elyon Alliance and
Securities Limited, summed it up:
“If the earnings run-rate we’ve seen in the first half
holds through December, 2025 won’t just be the year profits returned—it will be
the year dividends made a comeback.”
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