Nigeria’s Economy Grows 3.69% in Q2 2025, But Experts Say Hardship Persists

Nigeria’s economy expanded by 3.69% in the second quarter of 2025, according to the latest report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). While the government has hailed the figures as a sign of progress, many Nigerians and economic analysts argue that the growth does not reflect the daily struggles of households facing soaring inflation and high borrowing costs.

Sector Contributions to GDP

The NBS data showed that the non-oil sector remained the backbone of the economy, contributing 95.95% of real GDP, compared to just 4.05% from oil. Within the non-oil sector, services dominated with 56.53%, followed by agriculture at 26.17% and industries at 17.31%.

• Agriculture grew by 2.82% in Q2 2025, up from 2.60% in Q2 2024.
• Industry recorded a sharp growth of 7.45%, compared to 3.72% in the same quarter of 2024.
• Services posted a 3.94% increase, slightly higher than the 3.83% recorded a year earlier.

The oil sector also saw modest gains, expanding from 3.97% in Q1 2025 to 4.05% in Q2, supported by an increase in average daily crude oil production from 1.62 million barrels per day in Q1 to 1.68 mbpd in Q2.

Rising Inflation Dampens Outlook

Despite the growth, economic realities remain harsh for ordinary Nigerians. Inflation stands at 20.12%, while the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) has climbed to 27.50%, raising the cost of credit and stifling growth in critical sectors such as manufacturing, agriculture, ICT, and trade.

Analysts warn that while the headline GDP growth is encouraging on paper, it has yet to translate into real relief for businesses and households struggling with rising costs.

Year-on-Year Performance

The report noted that Nigeria’s Q2 2025 growth outperformed both the 3.13% in Q1 2025 and the 3.48% recorded in Q2 2024. In nominal terms, aggregate GDP at basic prices reached ?100.73 trillion, a significant jump from ?84.48 trillion in Q2 2024, representing a 19.23% year-on-year increase.

The Bigger Picture

While the non-oil sector continues to drive Nigeria’s economy, the heavy dependence on services and agriculture underscores the need for more robust industrial and manufacturing output. Experts argue that until inflation and interest rates are brought under control, economic growth may remain “on paper” with limited impact on living standards.