Nigeria’s Inflation Drops Sharply Ahead of CBN Policy Meeting

Nigeria’s inflation rate recorded a marginal decline in January 2026, according to the latest figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), as policymakers prepare for the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

The data, released ahead of the MPC meeting scheduled for February 23–24, showed that January’s headline inflation rate dipped by 0.05 percentage points compared to December 2025.

On a year-on-year basis, inflation fell significantly by 12.51 percentage points to 15.10 per cent, down from 27.61 per cent recorded in the same period last year.

Month-on-month, headline inflation stood at 2.88 per cent, reflecting a moderation in the pace of price increases compared to December’s figure.

Food Inflation Sees Major Drop

Food inflation — a key driver of household expenses — recorded a substantial decline in January.

Year-on-year, food inflation dropped to 8.89 per cent, representing a sharp decrease of 20.73 percentage points from the 29.63 per cent posted in January 2025.

On a month-on-month basis, food inflation stood at 6.02 per cent. The NBS attributed the easing to falling prices of staple items such as water yam, eggs, green peas, groundnut oil, soya beans, palm oil, maize, guinea corn, beans, beef, melon (egusi), cassava tubers, and white cowpeas.

The 12-month average food inflation rate also declined markedly to 20.29 per cent in January 2026, compared to 38.47 per cent a year earlier — an 18.18 percentage-point drop.

Core, Urban and Rural Inflation Moderate

Core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy prices, stood at 17.72 per cent year-on-year in January 2026, down from 25.27 per cent in January 2025. On a monthly basis, it eased to 1.69 per cent from 0.58 per cent in December.

The 12-month average core inflation rate also slowed to 22.84 per cent from 27.24 per cent recorded in the corresponding period last year.

Urban inflation fell to 15.36 per cent year-on-year, compared to 29.45 per cent in January 2025. Month-on-month, it stood at 2.72 per cent, while the 12-month average rose slightly to 22.30 per cent.

In rural areas, inflation declined to 14.44 per cent year-on-year from 25.04 per cent a year earlier. On a month-on-month basis, rural inflation moderated to 3.29 per cent, while the 12-month average dropped to 21.03 per cent from 30.79 per cent in January 2025.

The latest figures reflect the impact of the NBS’s recently revamped methodology, which it says better captures real-world price movements. Economists and market watchers will now look to the CBN’s policy meeting for signals on the direction of interest rates amid the easing inflationary pressures.