Nigeria’s June 2025 Food Inflation Climbs to 21.97%

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reports that Nigeria's food price inflation rose sharply to 21.97% year?on?year in June 2025, up from 21.14% in May—a 0.83 percentage point increase—while month?on?month food inflation surged to 3.25%, compared to 2.19% the previous month

Key Drivers Behind the Surge

• Staple food price inflation was driven by sharp increases in core items such as dried peas, fresh peppers, crayfish, shrimps, tomatoes, plantain flour, ground pepper, and fresh meat
• Core inflation (food?+?energy?excluded) also intensified: 22.76% year?on?year, up from 22.28%, with monthly core inflation jumping from 1.10% to 2.46%
• Agricultural challenges—including insecurity in farming regions (e.g., Benue State), fragmented plots, and seasonal supply constraints—have hampered yields and pushed prices upward
• Macroeconomic context: Despite headline inflation cooling, food remains sticky due to supply-chain and production bottlenecks. Analysts flagged FX costs, logistics, insecurity, and import duties as further inflationary pressures

Broader Inflation Outlook

• Headline CPI fell for the third month straight to 22.22% year?on?year, down from 22.97% in May
• On a monthly basis, overall prices rose by 1.68%, up from 1.53%, signaling ongoing inflationary pressures
• The CPI index increased from 121.4 (May) to 123.4 (June)
• The rebasing of CPI in January 2025—from 2009 to 2024—lowered the base, making headline inflation appear more moderate compared to mid?2024 levels, when it peaked historically at ~35%

Urban–Rural & Regional Nuances

• Urban inflation now stands at 22.72% year?on?year, with 2.11% monthly growth. Rural inflation is slightly lower at 20.85% y?o?y, with 0.63% uptick
• All?items regional inflation varies considerably:
• Highest (y?o?y): Borno (31.63%), FCT (26.79%), Benue (25.91%)
• Lowest: Zamfara (9.90%), Yobe (13.51%), Sokoto (15.78%)
• Sharpest monthly jumps: Ekiti (5.39%), Delta (5.15%), Lagos (5.13%); smallest: Zamfara (?6.89%), Niger (?5.35%), Plateau (?4.01%)

Policy Environment & Outlook

• The Central Bank of Nigeria has held its key interest rate steady at 27.5% since February 2025 and will review again in late July
• Experts caution that persistent food inflation reflects underlying structural bottlenecks—such as insecurity, logistics, and FX costs—and argue for policy interventions on agriculture, trade, tariffs, and rural security
• World Bank & FT analysts emphasize that improving food supply chains, scaling agricultural output, stabilizing the naira, and maintaining monetary discipline are key to bridging inflation and growth goals

Summary

Food inflation remains a stubborn weak spot in Nigeria's battle with cost-of-living pressure—driven by staples’ rising costs amid supply and structural challenges. While headline inflation shows signs of cooling, sustained relief will require targeted agricultural reforms, improved market access, and macroeconomic consistency.