Rising Oil Prices Amid Middle East Conflict Could Push Petrol in Nigeria Above N1,000 – Economist

Paul Alaje, Chief Economist at SPM Professionals, has warned that escalating crude oil prices driven by the conflict in the Middle East could sharply increase the cost of petroleum products in Nigeria, potentially pushing petrol (PMS) above N1,000 per litre by the end of April.

Alaje explained that rising crude prices directly affect refined products such as diesel and aviation fuel, which in turn raise production costs, inflation, and the cost of living for households across all income levels.

“As crude oil goes up, the cost of PMS, diesel, and Jet-A1 will also follow. About nine per cent has already been added to the cost of PMS in Nigeria, and if the war is not properly managed, it might get to N1,000 plus for PMS,” he said.

Alaje noted that sustained fuel price increases would affect manufacturers, pushing up the cost of goods across the short, medium, and long term, while also impacting transport and aviation sectors.

Potential Gains for Nigeria

The economist highlighted that Nigeria could initially benefit from higher oil prices through increased export earnings, a pattern typical of oil-dependent economies during global supply shocks.

“The America–Israel war and Iran have far-reaching effects. Crude oil prices are significantly going up. We might see oil prices reach levels similar to President Jonathan’s era — more revenue for Nigeria — because the world cannot suddenly replace all equipment that relies on by-products of crude overnight,” Alaje explained.

However, he cautioned that domestic economic pressures, particularly inflation driven by higher energy costs, could offset the gains. Petrol prices have already risen in several parts of the country.

Escalating Middle East Conflict

The warning comes amid the intensification of hostilities in the Middle East following failed nuclear negotiations in February 2026. The US and Israel launched joint offensives — Operation Epic Fury (U.S.) and Roaring Lion (Israel) — which resulted in the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and senior officials.

Iran retaliated with missile and drone strikes on Israel and US bases across the Gulf, while Hezbollah attacked Israel from Lebanon. Hundreds of civilian casualties have been reported, amid growing humanitarian concerns and global protests.

This escalation follows previous tensions, including the 2025 “Twelve-Day War,” the “Maximum Pressure 2.0” sanctions campaign, and anti-regime protests in Iran that were violently suppressed.

The conflict has sent crude oil prices soaring, highlighting Nigeria’s dual challenge of benefiting from higher export revenues while managing domestic inflationary pressures.