Tinubu's 'POS economy' can't fight inflation - Ikeddy ISIGUZO

TWICE in less than two weeks, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has repeated his threat to crush inflation from 36.4 per cent to 15 per cent in 2025. His first attack on inflation was at his budget presentation at the National Assembly on 18 December 2024 and then in his New Year message on 1 January 2025.

In both instances, he said his economic policies would push inflation down with 21 per cent. Those who thought they did not hear him well heard him repeat it in the New Year message.

The summary of the presidential message, the Governors, and all those who have deemed it their role to send out similar messages, is abundant hope. The President never misses a chance to ask Nigerians to be patient with his policies. He accuses us of impatience without any proof.

In his 18 months, Tinubu has made the banking system a Point Of Sale, POS, economy where banks no longer allow customers to withdraw cash under the guise of a cashless economy. The ATMs are without cash or configured to discharge an amount like N5,000. How do small businesses cope or people who have  to make small purchases?

Cash is always available with the POS merchants whose extra charges import inflation into a transaction on which other  charges had been paid. Where else do POS merchants get cash except from the banks?

Is availability of cash in banks against the economic policy of the government? How does the government expect low income earners and rural communities to bear these extra costs that it may not recognise as inflation?

A proposed policy to limit cash one can access from POS merchants is not a solution. It is another wave of hardship on the way.

These, according to experts, are the real drivers of inflation:

.Government is wasting a lot of money in maintaining "a big bureaucracy" against official reports that have suggested cuts to wastes.

.The increase in fuel prices following the removal of subsidy, cost of imported diesel which depends on value of Naira, constant raise in price of electricity, all translate to higher prices of food, energy, and transportation. Rising fuel prices cause increased fares for commuters, and goods. Currently, fuel has no fixed price, and it goes mostly up.

.The continued drop in the value of the Naira is the lead driver of inflation and the impact runs through the  whole span of a highly import-dependent economy. Higher costs for machinery, fertilizers, and other inputs for farmers, result in higher food prices. Industries are also mired in increased costs for raw materials, machinery, most of which are imported. High production costs and prices that most consumers cannot afford are the results.

.Insecurity lessens access to farms which means that even if food was produced, evacuating it faces increased challenges. Security has also affected transportation costs as people are using longer routes to avoid certain areas or travel by air.

.Higher global oil prices, the falling Naira, and cost of imported fuel, all contribute to inflation. The arrival of Dangote Refinery was quickly followed by controversies that have not permitted its operations to be felt. Revamped government refineries in Port Harcourt and Warri, if they last, would take time to reduce the inflation that has hugged the economy.

These situations have hit consumers and businesses really hard. Consumers barely have enough to buy basic needs while manufacturers that borrow from banks at outrageous interest rates find it more difficult to remain in business.

High inflation rate makes savings useless. Earnings depreciate by the day as witnessed in the new national minimum wage that will leave workers almost worse than the situation they were in before the increase.

Are these what Tinubu said he would tackle in a year? How would he do it in a government most of whose top officials may be available but unseen where issues that are their responsibilities are involved? Not many of them recognise service to the people as the purpose of their offices.

They gloat over Tinubu's presidency as if it is the conquest of those who demand governance and not just a regime change from Muhammadu Buhari to Tinubu.

We should not be deceived. The year will be tougher than any we have been through. Governments have made provisions in their budgets to live above the circumstances that we are all complaining about. They do not feel what we feel.

They have no feelings towards the people they are meant to serve. Retorts and rhetorics have become standard responses to mere questions about how our governments work for our benefit. It is none of their business to improve our lives.

How would they understand how we feel when their own issues are covered in budgets? If they run out of money, they send in papers for a supplementary budget to fetch more money. In all cases, the supplementary budgets are passed with the urgency of an emergency.

Tinubu is not about to attend to the drivers of inflation. He has ruled out chances that he would ever run a smaller government. The same can be said of his other indulgences.

"Under the banner of the Renewed Hope Agenda, President Tinubu is dutifully turning our nation’s fortunes around. He deserves the support and patience of Nigerians to consolidate the deep economic foundation he has laid and deliver a vibrant, prosperous new Nigeria for the good of all. We urge Nigerians to remain confident in the brighter days ahead," Felix Morka, National Publicity Secretary of the All Progressives Congress, APC, has advised those who want to know the direction of Tinubu's presidency.

Trite regurgitations like Morka's lay to rest any expectation that Tinubu even listens to what the people feel. There is no chance that he would reduce inflation to 15 per cent as it would run contrary to his policy of not  caring about ordinary Nigerians.

Finally...

JUST as the Federal Government did not burden us with how it bundled Nnamdi Kanu into an aircraft in Nairobi to continue his trial in Abuja, it should not bother us with efforts to put Simon Ekpa on trial for the nuisance he has continued to be.

THE 2025 budget would do with a lot of scrutiny. We should have a good look at the budget to cut wastes.

DID you come across the advisory the Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued to Nigerians against travelling to Australia? Though it was a counter to one Australia issued to its people, it provided a good laugh. I look forward to the Ministry of Internal Affairs issuing advisories on how safe parts of Nigeria have become.

NIGERIAN Television Authority devoted hours of live broadcast on Friday to Ezewoke Nyesom Wike, Minister of Federal Capital Territory, as his disciples turned out in their numbers to sing Wike's praises, pledge loyalty to Wike, apologise to him for the comments Dr. Peter Odili made about him, and commend the great job he is doing in Abuja. One called him the Governor of Abuja, and they all called him leader. Wike was very happy, particularly, when the praises were about what he had done for the Ijaws, as articulated by the leader of an Ijaw group that apologised for the "ingratitude" of Governor Sim Fubara. This Port Harcourt event called New Year Luncheon is another Wike innovation.

DEATHS were plentiful during the celebrations - poisoning, accidents, assassinations, murders, and then the incident of a Catholic priest firing shots that killed two people. Bandits still threaten whole villages and execute their threats without consequences. The body counts are too regular that they hardly make headlines these days. Nigeria is getting more dangerous. Someone should help.

THERE are provisions of over N600m in the 2025 budget for provision of infrastructure for nine palaces of traditional rulers in Nigeria, the Nigerian Tribune reported. The allocated were spread thus - North East 1, North West 1, North Central 2, South West 3, South South 1, FCT 1, and South East 0. Our ancestors forbid that there are no palaces in the South East.

HAPPY New Year. Let us make this year count as one in which we intentionally set out to seek our own good only in the race for the common good.