US-Ukraine Minerals Deal: What We Know So Far

The United States and Ukraine appear to be inching closer to finalizing a significant economic agreement centered around Ukraine’s valuable mineral resources. This comes nearly two months after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited Washington with hopes of sealing the deal—a plan that was abruptly derailed by a contentious meeting with former President Donald Trump.

A Tentative Agreement

On April 18, the Ukrainian government published a memorandum of intent, signaling that both nations intend to establish an investment fund for Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction. This initiative is described as part of a broader economic partnership. The final text of the agreement is expected to be completed by April 26.

While the memo outlines aspirations for lasting peace and reconstruction, it remains vague on specific mechanisms—omitting any direct mention of minerals, energy infrastructure, or security guarantees. Yet, leaked drafts and prior statements provide insight into what may ultimately be included.

Previous Leaks and Expectations

A draft version of the agreement, leaked in February and reported by Ukrainian media, proposed that Ukraine contribute 50% of future proceeds from state-owned mineral, oil, and gas resources to an investment fund. This fund would be jointly managed by Washington and Kyiv and aimed at promoting Ukraine’s "safety, security, and prosperity."

The same draft outlined a long-term US financial commitment to Ukraine’s development. Although the latest memo is more restrained, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that the current text remains "substantially" similar to previous drafts, describing it as an 80-page agreement that awaits final signatures.

Sticking Points and Political Tension

The road to an agreement has been rocky. The initial February signing was scrapped following a heated exchange between Trump and Zelensky in the Oval Office. Trump reportedly accused Zelensky of insufficient gratitude for American support and warned that failing to make a deal would endanger continued aid.

One of the more controversial aspects of early drafts included a $500 billion request from the US in mineral wealth—a demand Ukraine rejected. Though this clause was later dropped, disagreements over terms have fueled tensions between the two governments.

Despite the drama, Ukrainian Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko remains optimistic, stating that the final deal would be “very beneficial for both countries.”

Mineral Wealth and Strategic Value

Ukraine holds significant strategic value due to its abundant mineral resources. The Ukrainian Geological Survey estimates the country contains about 5% of the world’s critical raw materials, including 19 million tonnes of proven graphite reserves—key for electric vehicle batteries.

Ukraine is also rich in titanium, lithium, and potentially rare earth elements vital for electronics, defense, and green technologies. However, some of these claims remain under debate, and a portion of Ukraine’s resources—worth an estimated $350 billion—lie in territories occupied by Russia.

Challenges Ahead

Even with a signed agreement, substantial obstacles remain. A quarter of Ukraine's land is contaminated by unexploded landmines, complicating mining operations and infrastructure development. Additionally, the timeline for realizing any economic benefit is unclear, as the resources require extensive development before yielding returns.

Tymofiy Mylovanov, former Ukrainian minister and economist, stressed that these materials are “not in a port or warehouse—they must be developed,” emphasizing the long-term nature of the project.

No Security Guarantee—Yet

Notably absent from the memo is a security guarantee, a long-standing request from President Zelensky. The US has instead offered ongoing financial support and vaguely referenced its desire for peace in the region. Trump has previously claimed the presence of US contractors in Ukraine could serve as an informal security mechanism, while emphasizing that Europe should now bear primary responsibility for Ukraine’s defense.

Russia’s Response

Russian President Vladimir Putin appeared unphased by the deal. In a televised statement, he claimed Russia possesses far greater mineral resources than Ukraine and invited American investors to participate in mining projects within Russia’s so-called “new territories”—referring to regions of eastern Ukraine now under Russian occupation.

Putin’s comments were seen as an attempt to undermine the US-Ukraine deal and present Russia as a more attractive alternative for global partners.

Next Steps

According to the memo, technical discussions are ongoing, with Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal scheduled to visit Washington next week to finalize the details. Trump has expressed hopes that the deal will be signed by April 24, two days ahead of the previously announced deadline.

Whether the final agreement will significantly reshape Ukraine’s economic future or US strategic interests remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: the outcome will carry weight well beyond minerals.