World Bank: Nigeria’s 0.14% Social Protection Budget Has Minimal Impact on Poverty

Nigeria’s investment in social protection remains one of the lowest in the world — at just 0.14% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) — a figure far below the global average of 1.5% and the Sub-Saharan African average of 1.1%, according to a new World Bank report.

The report, titled “The State of Social Safety Nets in Nigeria,” warned that despite numerous intervention schemes, the country’s current spending level has barely reduced poverty, lowering the national poverty headcount by only 0.4 percentage points.

Between 2010 and 2021, Nigeria’s social protection spending averaged 0.45% of GDP, according to International Labor Organization (ILO) data. Even in 2019, when it peaked at 0.7% (excluding health), the World Bank said actual spending fell short of budgeted allocations, limiting real impact.

“At the existing level of social protection expenditure, there is almost no impact on the overall poverty headcount rate, gap, or depth,” the report stated.
“The minimal impact is explained, first and foremost, by the low coverage of and low expenditures on safety-net programmes.”

Poor Design, Weak Targeting, and Donor Dependence

The report attributes Nigeria’s poor outcomes to weak programme design, low benefit levels, and poor targeting.

While schemes such as the National Social Safety Nets Programme (NASSP) disburse flat amounts per household, the Bank noted that poorer families — often much larger — are forced to stretch limited resources among more people.

“A family of eight in a rural village and a family of three in a semi-urban area may receive the same transfer, even though the former faces deeper hardship,” the report observed.

Other programmes, like the National Home-Grown School Feeding Programme, target individual pupils but cover only children in grades one to three, leaving millions of others out.

Equally concerning, the Bank said Nigeria’s social protection system is heavily donor-dependent. Between 2015 and 2021, foreign assistance accounted for about 60% of all federal spending on social safety nets — with the World Bank providing over 90% of that support.

“There is an urgent need for Nigeria to find fiscal space for sustainable social safety-net programming,” the report warned. “Heavy donor dependence puts the country at risk of funding gaps whenever external support declines.”

Minimal Impact Despite Billions Spent

According to the report, current safety-net programmes lowered the poverty gap by only 0.2 percentage points and the depth of poverty by just 0.15 percentage points — among the weakest impacts globally.

It also revealed that only 44% of total benefits from government-funded safety-net schemes reach poor Nigerians, even though 56% of beneficiaries are poor.

This inefficiency, the report explained, stems from a uniform per-household benefit model that fails to reflect household size or severity of poverty.

“Even well-targeted programmes lose effectiveness when benefits are divided among many people in poorer households,” it said.

A Ray of Hope: National Social Registry and NASSP

Despite the grim findings, the World Bank singled out the National Social Safety Nets Programme (NASSP) and its use of the National Social Registry (NSR) as a bright spot.

Among its beneficiaries, the NASSP reduced poverty by 4.3 percentage points and the poverty gap by 4.2 percentage points — nearly ten times more effective than the combined impact of all other programmes.

With over 85 million individuals already captured, the NSR is now the largest database of poor and vulnerable households in Sub-Saharan Africa, offering what the Bank described as “a ready-made platform for more accurate and transparent delivery of social assistance.”

Government Response

Recently, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, announced that the Federal Government aims to reach 15 million households — about 70 million Nigerians — through its ?25,000 digital cash-grant scheme.

He disclosed that 8.5 million households have received at least one payment, while the remaining 6.5 million are expected to be paid before the end of the year.

However, the World Bank maintained that Nigeria’s social protection spending remains inefficient and poorly targeted, noting that even though a majority of beneficiaries are poor, a smaller share of total benefits reaches them.

The Bigger Picture

Despite billions spent annually on poverty alleviation, the Bank concluded that Nigeria’s fragmented and underfunded safety-net system continues to fail the most vulnerable.

It called for better coordination across federal, state, and local levels, higher domestic funding, and scaling up of well-targeted initiatives like NASSP to achieve meaningful progress.

“Without greater investment and better targeting,” the report said, “the needle on poverty will continue to barely move.”